Can a new railway initiative help Kyrgyzstan reclaim its historic place on the great silk road? Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan freight route, under discussion for decades, finally appears to have found the necessary political backing across all three countries.
Under current proposals, which will be put through a feasibility study before construction can begin next year, the railway will connect Kashgar, a city in China’s Xinjiang region, to the Southern Kyrgyz city of Jalal-Abad. From there, the route will continue West to the Uzbek capital, Tashkent.
If completed, the railway will provide a new passage for Chinese goods destined for the European market. As it stands, Chinese exports typically reach Europe via Kazakhstan and Russia, a route that has become increasingly problematic following the invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the war was likely a major factor in helping to bring this long-mooted project closer to realization.
Moreover, not only will the new railway allow Beijing to bypass Russia, it also has the added benefit of shortening overall journey times by as much as eight days (or 900 kilometres).
While China pursues its grand economic and geopolitical objectives, Kyrgyzstan arguably has the most to gain from the route’s construction. The Kyrgyz section is where most of the new track must be laid, as Chinese goods transitioning through the country currently rely on road transport.
According to one investment expert, that could open up new opportunities for the country. Ricky Wang of Interstan Securities, a Bishkek-based investment and brokerage house, said:
“This is a game-changing development for Kyrgyzstan, which everyone was expecting for decades. It should open the Chinese market to Kyrgyz coal, which is currently hardly exportable. It may create an overseas market for petroleum products processed in Kyrgyzstan, of its domestic and imported crude oil. It should generally provide an economic boost to the currently economically depressed regions of Southern Kyrgyzstan”.
Hurdles remain, of course, as the proposals first have to survive the aforementioned feasibility study. To that effect, while the need to build entirely new track through Kyrgyzstan (where previously there was none) provides the country great economic opportunity, it also threatens to doom the project at an early stage.
A particular concern is the difficult terrain of Southern Kyrgyzstan, which will likely see construction costs spiral beyond the $4.1 billion currently quoted for the 280 kilometer Kyrgyz stretch of track. Should the project go significantly over budget, Beijing will most likely be left to pick up the tab. A fresh injection of political will has brought this long dormant scheme closer to fruition. Its withdrawal could come just as suddenly.